Issue No: 08/2024

Conflict & Resilience Monitor – 30 September 2024

The Conflict and Resilience Monitor offers monthly blog-size commentary and analysis on the latest conflict-related trends in Africa.

Photo: AMISOM/Omar Abdisalan

The September issue of the Monitor begins with an article on the impacts of climate change on social cohesion and stability in the Southern African region. In it, Cedric de Coning, Siyaxola Gadu, Shaun Kinnes, Giulia Caroli, Ashleigh Basel and Gracsious Maviza navigate the complexities around developing effective strategies to prevent and mitigate the risks caused by climate change to social cohesion. The second article by Camile Vern maps the evolution of FemWise-Africa and showcases the unique experiences and expertise of women in mediation processes on the continent.

The third and fourth articles are on the theme of elections against the backdrop of International Day of Democracy which was commemorated on 15 September 2024. Catherine Vitaliano begins with a commentary of South Sudan’s recent election postponement and what this means for the country’s journey towards democratic transition. We end with an article by Nkanyiso Simelane, who reflects on the key outcomes from the AfEONet Electoral Integrity Africa Summit held on 10-12 September 2024 in Kampala, Uganda, deliberating on the crucial role of citizen election observers in enhancing electoral integrity in Africa.

Chief Editor: Conflict & Resilience Monitor​
Assistant Editor: Conflict & Resilience Monitor​
Photo: Aurélie Marrier d'Unienville/IFRC
Environment

The impacts of climate change on social cohesion and stability in Southern Africa

  • Cedric de Coning
  • Siyaxola Gadu
  • Shaun Kinnes
  • Giulia Caroli
  • Ashleigh Basel
  • Gracsious Maviza

If governments and member states are to avoid the cost of responding too late, developing resilient networks and adaptive institutional capacities at local, national and regional levels is key. Action must start now and be based on a strong understanding of the risks that climate change poses to social cohesion and stability, as well as entry points for addressing climate change in ways that promote peaceful coexistence, collaboration and trust.

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Photo: Nektarios Markogiannis/UNMISS
Women, Peace & Security

Bringing women to the table. The evolution of FemWise-Africa

  • Camille Vern

It has become a widely accepted consensus that women should take part in conflict resolution processes. The United Nations Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1325 (2000) provided advocates for female political participation and leadership with an international declaration that reaffirmed the call for more women at the table. That table includes national governments, regional and continental organisations, high-level representatives and envoys, mediation teams and conflict prevention units. While many will argue that the fight for gender equality has still a very long way to go, there have been some meaningful steps, declarations, initiatives and projects promoting the representation of women in decision-making and conflict management. One of those initiatives is the African Union (AU) Network of African Women in Conflict Prevention and Mediation (FemWise-Africa).

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Photo: UNMISS
Elections

South Sudan’s Postponed Elections: A Symptom of a Deeper Crisis

  • Catherine Charles Modi Vitaliano

South Sudan has once again postponed its scheduled elections, originally planned for December 2024, by another 24 months, pushing the election to 2026. This delay is not just a logistical issue but rather a reflection of the deeper structural crises within the country’s governance and peace processes. The postponement follows a history of failed attempts to hold elections, beginning with the first planned election in 2015, which was derailed by the outbreak of conflict in 2013 and 2016. This, in turn, led to the collapse of the Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (ARCSS). A revitalized version of the agreement (R-ARCSS) was signed in 2018 in an effort to revive the peace process, which was also extended in 2024 to the Roadmap. The Revitalized Transitional Government of National Unity (R-TGoNU), established in February 2020, was tasked with overseeing the transitional period and ensuring free and inclusive elections by the end of the transition.

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Photo: Commonwealth Secretariat
Elections

The role of citizen election observers in enhancing electoral integrity in Africa

  • Nkanyiso Goodnews Simelane

International Democracy Day was commemorated on 15 September 2024, at a time when the African continent, and the world at large, is experiencing democratic decline and key deficits in the quality of electoral integrity. This context presents challenges and opportunities for the crucial role of citizen election observers in safeguarding democracy against the rise of authoritarianism in Africa. The African Election Observers Network (AfEONet) Electoral Integrity Africa Summit took place from 10-12 September 2024, in Kampala, Uganda, under the theme “Strengthening Electoral Transparency, Public Oversight and Collaborative Reforms”. The Summit provided a platform for expert participants to share insights regarding the contributions of citizen election observers and civil society organisations in rebuilding electoral integrity on the continent. This piece provides some key outcomes from discussions held during the Summit’s proceedings.

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