Conflict & Resilience Monitor – 28 February 2025

The M23 rebellion— widely recognised as being backed by Rwanda—has continued its advance following the fall of Goma and Bukavu, the respective capitals of North and South Kivu in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), by late January 2025. It is not meeting much resistance from the Congolese forces, known by the French acronym, FARDC, particularly after European mercenaries left the battlefield. Burundian forces, numbering around 10,000 in South Kivu, reportedly started withdrawing after M23 rebels overran Kavumu airport and adjacent air force base on their way to Bukavu.

Africa’s regional organisations and the United Nations (UN) have held a series of high-level summits to address the escalating situation in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which threatens regional stability. Since 2021, this largely ungoverned area has experienced a resurgence of armed groups, particularly the Rwanda-backed March 23 Movement (M23), which promotes Rwandan politico-economic and security interests rooted in historical context. In January 2025, the M23 seized Goma, the capital of the strategically significant, and mineral-rich, North Kivu Province, with little resistance from the Congolese armed forces (FARDC), and subsequently launched a military offensive into South Kivu. The M23 has attempted to establish a parallel civilian administration and expand mineral extraction in its areas of control. This reflects the narrative of “Greater Rwanda,” which envisions extending Rwanda’s territory beyond its colonial borders. The surge in violence in eastern DRC has resulted in significant loss of life and displacement and destruction of infrastructure, worsening an already critical humanitarian situation. Since 26 January 2025, over 843 people have been killed and more than 500,000 displaced, with at least 19 peacekeepers from the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) regional force (SAMIDRC) and the UN stabilisation mission in the DRC (MONUSCO) also killed.

The topic of Lesotho’s quest to regain its conquered territory evokes strong emotions and demands thoughtful consideration. The reclamation of this land by Lesotho’s Parliament, pursuant to the United Nations (UN) Resolution 1817 (XVII) passed on 18 December 1962, is a matter that requires a thorough analysis and deep reflection.

As South African President Cyril Ramaphosa prepares to dispatch envoys to engage with the United States (US) and other world capitals, South Africa stands at a crossroads in global diplomacy. Its vision of multilateralism guided by principles of peace, solidarity and equality – shared by many nations – contrasts sharply from the nationalist exceptionalism shaping US President Donald Trump’s agenda.

The Horn of Africa is a region marked by a complex tapestry of challenges, where political instability, economic underdevelopment, and social fragmentation intersect. In recent years, the impacts of climate change have emerged as a significant factor exacerbating existing vulnerabilities and fuelling conflict. This fragile region, encompassing countries such as Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia, has become a focal point for understanding how environmental stressors can reshape security landscapes. As climate-induced phenomena like droughts, erratic rainfall and desertification intensify, the competition for limited resources, including water and arable land, has deepened tensions among communities and across borders.