Conflict & Resilience Monitor – 20 December 2024

Over the last two decades security analysts have primarily focused on immediate threats arising from religiously inspired radicalism in Africa, particularly of the Sunni variety. They have largely neglected the understated Shia Muslim “missionary” activities of Lebanese religious professionals. Arguably, these activities have not yet evolved to the point of drawing their African target communities into Hezbollah’s operational orbit. But undoubtedly, secular radicalism had largely disappeared from the horizon of most military analysts by at least 1991, if not earlier. Ever since the fall of the USSR, African state socialist systems have been simultaneously maligned and ridiculed even as a historical memory. The default opinion on these systems was that they were not Marxist, they were results of purely foreign policy considerations, adopted in exchange for arms from pre-1978 China, the USSR, Cuba and occasionally, even the DPRK. Historians in France, South Africa and the US kept stressing the foreign impetus behind African Marxist Cold War era systems, especially military systems, and tied them to ethnic South Asian, South African Jewish (!), British radical, and other “non-African” intellectual influences.

The African Union’s “Silencing the Gun” initiative, a core component of Agenda 2063, aims to eliminate conflicts and build a peaceful and secure Africa by 2063. In an increasingly digital world, digital diplomacy offers a unique opportunity to advance this vision by enhancing early warning systems, fostering cross-border dialogue, and addressing emerging security threats. As Africa faces complex challenges related to political instability, misinformation, and cyber threats, digital tools such as social media, data analytics, and virtual platforms can significantly contribute to conflict prevention and resolution. 

In the context of the 25th anniversary of the landmark United Nations Security Council Resolution 1325 (UNSCR 1325) on Women, Peace and Security, it is crucial to reflect on its implementation, especially in conflict-prone regions in parts of Africa. Adopted on 31 October 2000, the UNSCR 1325 emphasises the essential role of women in conflict prevention, resolution, peacekeeping, and post-conflict reconstruction.  It advocates for women’s equal participation in all peace and security efforts and highlights the importance of implementing measures to protect women and girls from gender-based violence in conflict zones. 

The year 2024 has seen at least 7 countries in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region conducting elections, making it the highest contributor of elections in Africa this year. Countries such as Comoros, Botswana, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia and South Africa all held elections this year. The African Union (AU) has a broad mandate of promoting peace and security as well as good governance on the continent, and recognises the strong nexus between the three. This is because peace and security issues often interlock with those of governance, and in many respects, governance issues become the root causes of most threats to peace and security.  A key component of good governance is holding elections that are considered credible, integrous, and ‘free and fair’, hence this article will explore some of the trends, challenges and opportunities surrounding Southern Africa’s 2024 elections.