Conflict & Resilience Monitor – 31 October 2024

Over the past few years, peacebuilding has taken a more pragmatic turn. Most contemporary multidimensional peace operations now conduct both peacebuilding and protection activities. The overall goal of both peace operations and civil-military coordination remains civilian and locally-led peacebuilding. The overall approach to peacebuilding has shifted from top-down or pre-determined international ideas of what peace should look like to bottom-up or locally defined ideas of peace. This is leading to a convergence between civil-military coordination and Adaptive Peacebuilding.

Next year marks twenty years since the United Nations (UN) Peacebuilding Commission (PBC) was established in 2005. In those twenty years, billions of US dollars have been dispersed to over thirty countries with varying degrees of success in building peace and restoring stability on the ground. The twenty-year mark provides an opportune moment for the 2025 Peacebuilding Architecture Review to reflect on the implementation of the various UN resolutions related to the peacebuilding architecture and look ahead to addressing some of its key challenges. This takes place in the current global landscape which is marked by escalating inter and intra-state conflicts in Africa, the Middle East and Eastern Europe with increasing options for how these conflicts can be managed. Such options to manage conflicts include ad-hoc security arrangements outside of institutions, use of private military companies or multilateral peace enforcement missions. This context is also characterised by significant governance gaps, development deficits and more extreme climate conditions in certain parts of the world. Importantly, this is all happening against the backdrop of a largely strained multilateral system influenced by member states with diverse economic and political interests – interests that have the potential to sustain or resolve conflict.

Over the past decade, Africa has witnessed a concerning rise in election disputes, significantly undermining the integrity of electoral processes. Recent elections in Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Zimbabwe, Kenya, Mozambique, and Tunisia have faced widespread criticism. These cases highlight a troubling pattern across Africa, where electoral disputes range from allegations of fraud and lack of transparency to outright manipulation. In extreme instances, such as in Gabon and Niger, electoral discontent has even led to military coups, starkly illustrating the fragility of democratic institutions in the region.

The environment is a silent victim of war. Images from Ukraine or Sudan remind us that conflicts not only destroy a country’s social and economic fabric but also its ecosystem, thereby compromising development and reconstruction in times of peace. The international community has long been aware of this, which is why environmental protection during armed conflicts is directly and indirectly safeguarded by several international treaties. As early as 1977, the Geneva Convention was updated with a protocol that prohibits the use of the environment as a military target. Conversely, the idea that climate change itself can indirectly provoke tensions leading to conflict is gaining increasing attention. For those familiar with Africa, a striking example is the issue of transhumance. From the Horn of Africa to the Sahel, the reduction of fertile land, population growth, and the frequent drying up of water basins have intensified conflicts between herders and farmers at both national and transnational levels.