COVID-19 Conflict & Resilience Monitor – 14 October 2020

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) was first reported in the Horn of Africa region in early March 2020. At first, the number of cases seemed low compared to other regions, both on the continent and around the globe; however, these figures did increase steadily. Six months into the pandemic, it is encouraging to note the downward trend in the number of cases and deaths over the past few weeks. Thus far, more than 150 000 cases have been reported in the Horn of Africa. However, testing capacity is still quite limited, making the numbers a poor indicator of the actual infection rate. As pointed out by Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa-CDC), both the drastic preventative measures applied across Africa by governments in the first months of the pandemic and the continent’s young population certainly played a significant role in limiting the devastating impact of the virus, as seen elsewhere. Regional and international efforts have also helped in hampering the immediate impact of the pandemic, but a sustained and coordinated effort is needed to reduce the longer-term effects of COVID-19, particularly the effects on public health and the economy.

Like so many others around the world at the start of this year, I and members of the UN family watched with alarm the growing spread and impact of COVID-19 in Somalia and elsewhere in the world. Our biggest worry was the potential for the pandemic to spiral out of control. Somalia is rebuilding after three decades of conflict, protracted crises and repeated humanitarian emergencies. Continued insecurity makes parts of the country inaccessible to humanitarian workers.

When COVID-19 seized global attention in 2020, Somalia, a country in the Horn of Africa with a history of conflict and instability, was already facing a critical year. The methodology of the upcoming federal elections in early 2021 was in dispute, amid a tug of war between the Federal Government of Somalia and Federal Member States, and the spectre of renewed conflict as a result of political impasse loomed. The early forecast for Somalia was bleak and the possibility of a major humanitarian crisis was projected. Compounding the political and security issues plaguing Somalia’s development, environmental disasters such as locusts and floods were impacting food security and causing displacement. Moreover, Somalia’s health infrastructure ranks second-last on the Global Health Security Index. With the nascent recovery of Somalia relying on significant and sustained support for governance and security from the international community, the arrival of COVID-19 was another crisis with hitherto unforeseen impact.

The escalation of the COVID-19 pandemic across Africa, which began in March 2020, has gravely affected how the African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM) undertakes its operations. Given the multifaceted mandates of AMISOM, which include undertaking activities requiring close-quarters congregations and contact with Somali stakeholders, a balance has to be struck on how to continually discharge these mandates without putting the lives of its personnel and that of the Somali community in jeopardy.