Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, many governments across the world have resorted to the use emergency powers to enforce compliance with public health social distancing regulations.
Some have warned that the coronavirus pandemic might lead to hunger, riots, instability, and civil war, especially in Africa. How likely are such worst-case scenarios?
Taken together, it seems as if some of the measures and responses to the COVID-19 pandemic are increasing political tensions and heightening the risk for social unrest and violent conflict.
People may have their objections on the way institutions such as Governments are run, but they expect them to deliver. Part of this expected delivery by the institutions is the capacity to anticipate and manage crises. In an uncertain environment like the ongoing global COVID-19 public health crisis, trust in institutions is essential for compliance to measures to prevent the spread and contain the virus and even more critical to maintain peace, security and stability.
The political, economic and social dislocation that we are witnessing is unprecedented. History does not have many examples of what the resulting landscape will look like. In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, actions by politicians, government functionaries, religious and community leaders, business people, and civil society can either fuel social and political conflict or mitigate it.