COVID-19 could deepen fragility and exacerbate violent conflict, though data from regional security interventions to date suggest that not much has changed. However, with the rapid spread of COVID-19, the likelihood of a worsening security situation and a more constrained operational effectiveness of security personnel is a possibility.
The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly disrupted peacebuilding. All travel has been halted and new ways of working have had to be developed. Programmes have had to be reviewed and adapted to the new circumstances. In most cases, international staff are now working remotely, and national and local peacebuilders now have to continue the work on their own.
Approximately 100 days into the COVID-19 pandemic, there is a notable increase in social and political protests in some countries in Africa. These protests reflect pre-existing frustrations with social and political conditions that have now been further exacerbated by the COVID-19 restrictions, especially in the spheres of health, education, politics and service delivery.
The spread of COVID-19 in South Sudan has had a negative impact on the implementation of the peace process and has placed further stress on an already dire humanitarian situation.
In March 2020, Mozambique registered its first case of COVID-19. Since then, the number of infections has been increasing and is spreading continuously, reaching all provinces in the country. The effect of COVID-19 in Mozambique is most worrying in the northern province of Cabo Delgado, where in addition to being the province with the highest number of infections in the country, is where the population and government institutions are subject to violent armed attacks by terrorists.
Some African countries have started to eased their lockdown measures, in spite of rising infections in some cases, to address the severe economic losses and livelihood vulnerabilities that have come about as a result of containing the spread of the COVID-19 virus.
Presidential, parliamentary and local elections were scheduled to be held in 21 African countries and one autonomous region this year. As COVID-19 became a global pandemic and spread to Africa in March, one of the concerns that emerged was whether elections could be held under conditions of social distancing, quarantining and restrictions on mass gatherings.
Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, many governments across the world have resorted to the use emergency powers to enforce compliance with public health social distancing regulations.
Some have warned that the coronavirus pandemic might lead to hunger, riots, instability, and civil war, especially in Africa. How likely are such worst-case scenarios?
Taken together, it seems as if some of the measures and responses to the COVID-19 pandemic are increasing political tensions and heightening the risk for social unrest and violent conflict.