Theme: Political Unrest or Violence

The COVID-19 pandemic is directly and indirectly affecting governments’ ability to secure their populations. This is also the case of the core Sahel countries – which, in this brief, are defined as Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. Officially, none of them have been severely affected by the pandemic. However, this does not mean that COVID-19 effects could not materialise. The effects of COVID-19 will come, and while they may mainly be indirect, the consequences could be an additional burden on political and social systems that are already close to the brink.

For several years, the Sahel has been facing insecurity. Niger, by virtue of its geographical position, is the Sahel country most affected by this insecurity, due to persistent attacks by non-state armed groups in its western region bordering Burkina Faso and Mali, and in its eastern region (the Lake Chad Basin), where Boko Haram is active. In addition to this, there is now the added threat of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The call for a global ceasefire by United Nations (UN) Secretary General António Guterres came at an appropriate time, when the world needed to stop fighting and focus on the danger of the COVID-19 pandemic looming over us. However, more collective and inclusive action is required to make this a reality.

West Africa and the Sahel, which have been in the throes of insurgencies since the early 1990s and have had to deal with extremist violence from the mid-2000s, are faced with a new challenge: how do already underfunded, resource-constrained and, in most cases, poorly trained security forces respond to new threats?

COVID-19 could deepen fragility and exacerbate violent conflict, though data from regional security interventions to date suggest that not much has changed. However, with the rapid spread of COVID-19, the likelihood of a worsening security situation and a more constrained operational effectiveness of security personnel is a possibility.

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly disrupted peacebuilding. All travel has been halted and new ways of working have had to be developed. Programmes have had to be reviewed and adapted to the new circumstances. In most cases, international staff are now working remotely, and national and local peacebuilders now have to continue the work on their own.

Approximately 100 days into the COVID-19 pandemic, there is a notable increase in social and political protests in some countries in Africa. These protests reflect pre-existing frustrations with social and political conditions that have now been further exacerbated by the COVID-19 restrictions, especially in the spheres of health, education, politics and service delivery.

The spread of COVID-19 in South Sudan has had a negative impact on the implementation of the peace process and has placed further stress on an already dire humanitarian situation.

In March 2020, Mozambique registered its first case of COVID-19. Since then, the number of infections has been increasing and is spreading continuously, reaching all provinces in the country. The effect of COVID-19 in Mozambique is most worrying in the northern province of Cabo Delgado, where in addition to being the province with the highest number of infections in the country, is where the population and government institutions are subject to violent armed attacks by terrorists.

Some African countries have started to eased their lockdown measures, in spite of rising infections in some cases, to address the severe economic losses and livelihood vulnerabilities that have come about as a result of containing the spread of the COVID-19 virus.