Theme: Political Unrest or Violence

The end of the second decade of the 21st century has been characterised by an increase in the decades-long disruption in the Lake Chad Basin. A trifecta of climate change, conflict and, recently, the COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated a humanitarian crisis, whose foundation is embedded in decades of deep neglect, a lack of governance, a proliferation in ungoverned spaces, and the increased boldness and resilience of terrorists groups, including Boko Haram, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and elements of Al-Qaeda. A military campaign, led by a multitude of national, regional and international partners, as well as a growing civilian effort, coordinated by the Lake Chad Basin Commission, the African Union (AU), affected governments and international support, has perhaps been beset by a crisis of imagination. While the terrorists, though currently diminished, have been able to adapt and innovate, the state response is still hesitant and slow.

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly disrupted peace processes in Africa. In South Sudan, COVID-19 has not only presented a risk to the health and socio-economic circumstances of the citizenry but has also put a strain on the 2018 Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS). More efforts will have to be made to minimise the impact of the pandemic on the political processes around power-sharing and security reforms, as well as the preparation for elections at the end of the transitional period.

When COVID-19 seized global attention, Somalia, a country in the Horn of Africa with a history of conflict and instability, was already facing a critical year in 2020. The methodology of the upcoming federal elections in early 2021 was in dispute amid a tug of war between the Federal Government of Somalia and Federal Member States. The spectre of renewed conflict as a result of political impasse loomed. The early forecast for Somalia was bleak and the possibility of a major humanitarian crisis was projected. Compounding the political and security issues plaguing Somalia’s development, environmental disasters such as locusts and floods were impacting food security and causing displacement. Moreover, Somalia’s health infrastructure ranks second last in the Global Health Security Index. With the nascent recovery of Somalia relying on significant and sustained support for governance and security from the international community, the arrival of COVID-19 was another crisis with hitherto unforeseen impact.

By 7 October 2020, African countries will have been managing the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic for approximately 29 weeks. While the rate of infections and deaths has been high in many countries in other parts of the world, this has not been particularly so for Africa. Apart from South Africa, which is among the top 10 countries with the highest infection rate, the reported rate of infections and deaths has been low in many other African countries. Early precautionary measures were taken, before many (in some countries any) infections and deaths. This strategy seems to have been effective at containing the virus, but it compromised livelihoods, thus exacerbating existing socio-economic and political vulnerabilities.

There is an important need for relevant stakeholders to adopt strategies aimed at reaching out to farming and pastoralist communities, if the fight for the mitigation and possible eradication of the COVID-19 pandemic is to have any meaningful effect.

COVID-19 has affected all sectors of Malian society, especially the security, economic and social dimensions. In terms of security, the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic have enabled jihadists to firmly re-establish themselves in central Mali and to make new inroads towards the west of the country. Economically and socially, COVID-19 and the measures introduced to prevent it have severely disrupted the lives of many people in Mali.

Since independence, the Republic of Mali has been faced with situations of political, institutional and security instability. Although the state of governance in Mali is weak and fragile, and is now under further pressure from COVID-19, it has adopted several policies and programmes to advance the youth and engage in the future development of the country. However, these initiatives do not address the specific needs of young women.

Long before the arrival of COVID-19, the Sahel and West Africa were two particular regions in Africa that were confronted by many complex and interrelated security and humanitarian challenges. From violent conflict to famine and other humanitarian difficulties, the spread of COVID-19 is magnifying the threats to the region’s most vulnerable populations. Arguably, the most challenging of these issues are the toxic atmosphere and insecurity created as a result of the activities of armed violent extremist groups.

More than one year after the signing of the landmark Constitutional Declaration, Sudan’s ongoing transition remains one of the most important political transformations on the African continent. The country’s transition is fluid and complex, and undeniable areas of progress and reform continue to come up against deeply entrenched interests and inequalities, which have been compounded by COVID-19.

The COVID-19 pandemic is directly and indirectly affecting governments’ ability to secure their populations. This is also the case of the core Sahel countries – which, in this brief, are defined as Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. Officially, none of them have been severely affected by the pandemic. However, this does not mean that COVID-19 effects could not materialise. The effects of COVID-19 will come, and while they may mainly be indirect, the consequences could be an additional burden on political and social systems that are already close to the brink.