Theme: Livelihood Insecurity & Economic Impact

In the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Region, the pandemic has widened inequalities within, and between Member States. Labour-intensive service sectors such as retail trade, restaurants and hospitality, sports and recreation and transportation have been severely affected by measures to contain the pandemic. Activity within labour-intensive sectors are expected to remain subdued in the short to medium term. The low-skilled, low-wage workers in both formal and informal sectors are least able to withstand an economic shock. A full recovery in the labour market may take a while, worsening income inequalities and increasing poverty.

Intra-Southern African Development Community (SADC) exports and imports as a proportion of overall trade of the region rose from 15.2% and 17.5% to 19.5% and 19.15% respectively between 2008 and 2018. In their virtual meeting held in March 2020, the SADC Council of Ministers (SCM) observed that less than 20% of intra-SADC trade prevents member States from realising their economic potential. Thus, the above marginal intra-regional trade, firstly, reflects low industrialisation, evidenced by a slight increase in the manufacturing sector’s contribution to gross domestic product (GDP) from an average of 10.3% in 2013 to 11.9% in 2018. Secondly, this reflects lack of diversifying member States’ economic structures from agriculture and mining sectors, which in 2018, accounted for an average of over 25% of GDP. While in particular, South Africa, the largest and most diversified economy, has high capabilities of dominating intra-SADC trade.

The COVID-19 pandemic exposed fragilities and fault lines in many African countries, particularly their health systems and economic vulnerabilities. In spite of varying degrees of development on the African continent, the impact of the virus has taken its toll on the social, economic and political fibres in most African societies. While the pandemic did not exacerbate security challenges as earlier anticipated initially; and the continent was able to manage its rate of infection at the onset of the pandemic; the second wave of the virus resulted in a reversion of some restrictions as previously enforced in the first wave of the virus, causing a threat to livelihoods, as well as a trust deficit between the state and citizens, particularly in South Africa and Zimbabwe.

The February 2021 mandate renewal for the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) is an opportunity to review what we know about climate change and security in Somalia, and to consider what governments and multilateral organisations can do to improve the way they manage climate related security risks. Research finds no direct causal relationship between climate and conflict but has identified multiple pathways through which climate-related change interacts with political, social, and environmental stresses to compound existing vulnerabilities and tensions. These factors combined can undermine development gains, impact the dynamics of ongoing violence and disrupt fragile peace processes. Additional pressures, such as COVID-19, compound the risk and makes a country like Somalia even more vulnerable to shocks and setbacks, as the recent political crisis shows.

Savings clubs and other such community self-help arrangements can help people to cope better with the negative side-effects of the lockdown policies that governments introduced to prevent the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19. In countries such as Zimbabwe, without an effective social protection system for the poor and disadvantaged, savings clubs have often provided a buffer against the vagaries of broader economic and social challenges in local communities. Typically, ordinary people in Zimbabwe are faced with hunger and poverty due to a complex combination of macroeconomic instability, climate shocks and policy missteps. COVID-19, lockdown policies and social distancing regulations have added to the burden faced by ordinary people and have produced negative consequences on both formal and informal economic activities. The unemployment rate is estimated at 90%.

A few months ago, I warned the United Nations Security Council that the world stood on the brink of a hunger pandemic. A toxic combination of conflict, climate change and COVID-19 had threatened to push 270 million people to the brink of starvation. Famine was real. It was a terrifying possibility in up to three dozen countries if we did not continue to act like we had been acting. Fortunately, since then, the world really listened. Donors and leaders all over the world responded; they acted. Countries large and small took extraordinary measures to save the lives of their citizens and support their economies, spending US$17 trillion on fiscal stimulus and central bank support. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the G20 nations threw a lifeline to the poorest nations by suspending debt repayments. That made a huge impact. With our donors’ help, the global humanitarian community launched a huge and unprecedented global fightback against the coronavirus.

Since the negotiations for the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) were launched in Johannesburg in 2015, remarkable progress has been achieved – largely because of the political will and commitment of the Assembly of Heads of States and Government of the African Union (AU) to ensure that Africa takes concrete steps towards the creation of an integrated market.

There is no getting around it: the COVID-19 crisis will hit Africa’s people particularly hard. Even if the infection rate remains low, the socio-economic devastation is already being felt. Access to clean water supplies and basic health services remain a challenge throughout the continent, making the containment measures taken by most countries all the more challenging. Beyond the immediate health concerns, the pandemic is triggering a global economic slowdown, which will severely hamper Africa’s development ambitions and curtail a successful two decades of macro-economic improvements and social gains.

The human toll of the COVID-19 pandemic has been more limited in Africa than elsewhere. At the same time, the pandemic has exacerbated existing threats, fragilities and vulnerabilities – including in North Africa, the second-worst affected region of the continent – hindering international efforts to sustain peace, especially in conflict-affected settings such as Libya. The socio-economic impact of COVID-19 has also been significant, leading countries in the region to adopt a range of response measures with a view towards strengthening the resilience of societies and economies in the face of the pandemic.

The Lake Chad Basin is faced with a multidimensional crisis, largely as a result of a complex combination of factors that include terrorist activities, extreme poverty and a changing climate. The combination of these factors has triggered significant insecurity and the displacement of populations. The area has grown into one of the most complicated humanitarian emergencies in the world, with threats to the livelihoods of over 45 million inhabitants. The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in the region has therefore exacerbated existing challenges, making an already dire situation worse. The pandemic has significantly heightened the economic needs in the region and has presented serious challenges to the livelihoods of people in this region. These factors feed into conflict triggers, which contribute to further instability in the Lake Chad Basin.