Theme: COVID-19

In the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Region, the pandemic has widened inequalities within, and between Member States. Labour-intensive service sectors such as retail trade, restaurants and hospitality, sports and recreation and transportation have been severely affected by measures to contain the pandemic. Activity within labour-intensive sectors are expected to remain subdued in the short to medium term. The low-skilled, low-wage workers in both formal and informal sectors are least able to withstand an economic shock. A full recovery in the labour market may take a while, worsening income inequalities and increasing poverty.

The COVID-19 pandemic exposed fragilities and fault lines in many African countries, particularly their health systems and economic vulnerabilities. In spite of varying degrees of development on the African continent, the impact of the virus has taken its toll on the social, economic and political fibres in most African societies. While the pandemic did not exacerbate security challenges as earlier anticipated initially; and the continent was able to manage its rate of infection at the onset of the pandemic; the second wave of the virus resulted in a reversion of some restrictions as previously enforced in the first wave of the virus, causing a threat to livelihoods, as well as a trust deficit between the state and citizens, particularly in South Africa and Zimbabwe.

The February 2021 mandate renewal for the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) is an opportunity to review what we know about climate change and security in Somalia, and to consider what governments and multilateral organisations can do to improve the way they manage climate related security risks. Research finds no direct causal relationship between climate and conflict but has identified multiple pathways through which climate-related change interacts with political, social, and environmental stresses to compound existing vulnerabilities and tensions. These factors combined can undermine development gains, impact the dynamics of ongoing violence and disrupt fragile peace processes. Additional pressures, such as COVID-19, compound the risk and makes a country like Somalia even more vulnerable to shocks and setbacks, as the recent political crisis shows.