The role of artificial intelligence (AI) in global security has significantly expanded in recent years, with applications ranging from cybersecurity to diplomacy and Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD). Since the beginning of the post-colonial era, the African continent has been plagued by intra-state conflicts, insurgencies, and political instability, and AI is emerging as a transformative tool for conflict prevention and management. Given the increasing complexity of African conflicts — fuelled by ethnic tensions, climate change, natural resources paradox, and economic disparities — traditional peacekeeping approaches often encounter limitations in addressing these multidimensional crises. AI presents a new conflict analysis paradigm, notably by leveraging big data, machine learning, and predictive analytics to provide early warnings, strengthen peacekeeping strategies, and improve humanitarian responses. However, its application in conflict management is not without challenges. The effectiveness of AI-based systems highly depends on data quality, ethical considerations, and governance frameworks regulating their deployment.
This analysis explores both the potential and limitations of AI in conflict prevention and management in Africa, scrutinising the impact of digital technologies on peacebuilding efforts, and proposing policy recommendations to maximise their effectiveness. However, to understand AI’s role in African conflict dynamics, it is first essential to examine its application in early warning systems designed to detect and mitigate conflicts before they escalate. Therefore, the analysis’ focus is centred around three main questions: how does AI contribute to early warning mechanisms and conflict prevention in Africa? What are the main challenges and limitations associated with deploying AI-based solutions for conflict management? What policy recommendations can be formulated to ensure the ethical and effective application of AI in peacekeeping and preventive diplomacy in Africa?
Artificial Intelligence and Early Warning Systems in Conflict Prevention
Artificial intelligence enhances conflict prevention through early warning systems and mechanisms that analyse satellite imagery, social media data, and historical trends to detect emerging threats. For instance, AI-powered platforms such as the new model of the Global Conflict Risk Index employs machine learning algorithms to predict political instability and violence. Furthermore, in Africa, mechanisms such as the African Union’s (AU) Continental Early Warning System (CEWS) will progressively integrate AI to assess security threats timely. Such an approach is strategic as the ability to anticipate a conflict is the first step towards its prevention. Yet, although AI-driven early warning systems provide crucial information, their effectiveness mainly depends on the availability of reliable data and the capacity of African institutions to act upon these predictions.
Artificial intelligence enhances conflict prevention through early warning systems and mechanisms that analyse satellite imagery, social media data, and historical trends to detect emerging threats
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Despite AI’s predictive capabilities, several limitations persist, including the lack of AI databases. Indeed, several African states lack comprehensive datasets, leading to biased or incomplete AI models. Additionally, misinformation, limited internet access, and state control over data hinder AI’s effectiveness. Furthermore, AI systems must contend with the unpredictability of human behaviour. While AI can identify risk factors, it cannot account for the rational or irrational decisions of political actors or popular movements. Given these challenges, the next critical domain of AI application in Africa pertains to its role in peacekeeping operations.
Artificial Intelligence and Peacekeeping Operations
Artificial intelligence enhances peacekeeping by optimising surveillance, logistics, and decision-making processes. United Nations (UN) peacekeeping forces have deployed AI-equipped drones and automated data analysis systems to track militant movements and assess security threats. For example, the United Nations Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA) is assessing the opportunities and challenges of integrating AI-assisted recognition to monitor violence hotspots. Additionally, AI-driven natural language processing tools contribute to diplomatic mediation by analysing negotiation patterns and advising peace negotiators. The AU has also explored AI-enhanced communication tools to facilitate dialogue between conflicting parties. However, as Godfrey Musila warned, “Early warning only makes sense if the information collected, analysed, and disseminated is linked effectively to early action to prevent breakout or escalation of conflict.” While these advancements are significant, ethical concerns arise regarding the use of AI in conflict zones, particularly in relation to autonomous systems and surveillance technologies.
The success of AI in conflict prevention also relies on multilateral cooperation and contextualisation of AI models to African realities and the development of African-based AI models
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The deployment of AI in conflict zones raises several ethical questions, such as excessive surveillance, data privacy, and the risk of misuse by authoritarian regimes. Some critics argue that AI-driven surveillance could be used as an instrument for political repression, as evidenced by cases where governments have employed AI for mass surveillance under the guise of security. It is also worth mentioning the negative role AI has on peacekeeping missions, notably in generating and fostering fake news and misinformation. Moreover, international legal frameworks, notably the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights (ACHPR), emphasise the necessity of AI governance to prevent violations of fundamental rights. Therefore, AI must be deployed under strict ethical guidelines, balancing security imperatives with citizens’ rights to freedom. Given these concerns, policymakers and stakeholders must develop comprehensive strategies to ensure that AI serves as a tool for peace rather than repression or misinformation.
Policy Recommendations and Perspectives
To fully harness AI’s potential in conflict prevention, African governments must adopt regulatory frameworks that promote transparency, accountability, and the ethical use of AI. In this regard, establishing regional standards for the responsible deployment of this technology should be a paramount objective, as stated in the AU’s AI Strategy. Capacity building is also crucial in positively harnessing the potential of AI. Indeed, African governments should invest in AI education and training to enable local experts to develop and oversee these systems rather than relying solely on foreign technology providers. As Hayes Mabweazara noted, “it’s very hard to regulate what you really don’t understand, mostly in the global south where AI is right at the bottom of priorities in terms of issues that bother us as countries. There are still a lot of unknowns and gaps.” While governance frameworks are essential, the future trajectory of AI-assisted peacebuilding strategies and mechanisms will be determined by collaboration among African states, international organisations, and the private sector.
The success of AI in conflict prevention also relies on multilateral cooperation and contextualisation of AI models to African realities and the development of African-based AI models. The UN, European Union (EU), and AU must coordinate efforts to share AI research, fund peace initiatives supported by AI, and establish common ethical standards. Additionally, AI should complement, rather than replace, traditional (preventive) diplomacy. It must enhance human decision-making while ensuring that local communities retain autonomy in peacebuilding processes.
Conclusion
Artificial intelligence represents a transformative opportunity for conflict prevention and management in Africa. By improving early warning systems, supporting peacekeeping missions, and enhancing diplomatic mediation, AI can help mitigate conflicts before they escalate into violence. However, its deployment must be accompanied by robust governance frameworks, strict ethical guidelines and regional cooperation to prevent misuse. As the scientist Oren Etzioni emphasised, “AI is a tool. The choice about how it gets deployed is ours.” Therefore, the power of technology lies not in replacing human judgment, but in enabling it to act wisely. Ultimately, AI’s role in conflict prevention and management in Africa will be determined by the quality of its integration into human-led governance structures.
Jean Yves Ndzana Ndzana, PhD is a Senior Researcher in Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Weapons of Mass Destruction and Coercion in international politics, peace and security, and international security issues.
