The year 2024 has seen at least 7 countries in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region conducting elections, making it the highest contributor of elections in Africa this year. Countries such as Comoros, Botswana, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia and South Africa all held elections this year. The African Union (AU) has a broad mandate of promoting peace and security as well as good governance on the continent, and recognises the strong nexus between the three. This is because peace and security issues often interlock with those of governance, and in many respects, governance issues become the root causes of most threats to peace and security. A key component of good governance is holding elections that are considered credible, integrous, and ‘free and fair’, hence this article will explore some of the trends, challenges and opportunities surrounding Southern Africa’s 2024 elections.
On the positive side, Southern Africa has seen two cases of peaceful transfers of power in the context of a changes in government.
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The large scale of elections has posed both challenges and opportunities for the Region’s political stability, governance and democratic consolidation. On the positive side, Southern Africa has seen two cases of peaceful transfers of power in the context of a changes in government. Firstly, South Africa held its elections on 29 May 2024 but experienced the lowest voter turnout in its democratic history and had to navigate a coalition government at the national level for the first time since 1994 – a true test for the country’s political stability and democratic progress. Despite the ruling African National Congress (ANC) losing its outright majority for the first time since the democratic dispensation, the ANC accepted the electoral results and led a peaceful political transition from 30 years of one-party rule to coalition governance in the country.
In a similar vein, Botswana’s elections resulted in a peaceful transfer of power after the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) lost the elections for the first time since the country gained independence in 1966. After losing the elections, the BDP President committed to “respectfully step aside and participate in a smooth transition process ahead of inauguration” of the leader of Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), Duma Boko. The case of South Africa and Botswana champions the spirit and purport of the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance (ACDEG) which seeks “to entrench in the Continent a political culture of change of power based on the holding of regular, free, fair and transparent elections conducted by competent, independent and impartial national electoral bodies.” This is crucial for the African continent in combating Unconstitutional Changes of Government (UCGs).
Another notable moment of pride during the Southern African elections this year was the election of the only female Head of State in the Region. Her Excellency, Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, of the South West Africa People’s Organisation (SWAPO) secured 57.31% of the votes. This represents a positive step towards meaningful representation of women in positions of political leadership in the Region, and an example for other countries to follow.
Of course, there have been some challenging trends concerning the 2024 elections in Southern Africa. One of the challenges is the use or misuse of technology and social media in connecting to the elections. For example, South Africa experienced several cases of the voter management devices (VMDs) malfunctioning which caused massive delays in voting. There were also logistical problems during the Namibian elections when the integrated mobile voter registration systems malfunctioned, coupled with insufficient ballot papers in some voting stations which delayed voters. Moreover, Mauritius instituted a banning of social media access from 1 November to 11 November 2024 ( a day after the elections concluded), due to an alleged wiretapping scandal. The ban was lifted on 2 November after a public outcry and widespread opposition from civil society groups and business.
Another challenge was that the Comoros’ election results were contested as the electoral commission declared President Azali Assoumani the winner, with 62.97% of the vote, while the Supreme Court validated results that the President had won with 57.2% of the vote. This fuelled perceptions from the opposition parties that the elections may have been fraudulent and led to protests in the capital city, resulting in widespread destruction of property, one death, many sustaining gunshot wounds and others being arrested.
One of the challenges is the use or misuse of technology and social media in connecting to the elections.
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Furthermore, in the lead up to the November 2024 local elections in Tanzania, the country experienced “an ongoing and escalating pattern of human rights violations against opposition political party members, civil society organisations, journalists, Indigenous Peoples and human rights defenders” in the form of “harassment and intimidation, arbitrary arrests, deprivation of liberty, enforced disappearances, torture, unlawful killings and restrictions on freedom of expression.”
Of greater concern was the aftermath of Mozambique’s General Elections held on 9 October 2024 which resulted in sustained post-election violence and media reported targeted political killings of opposition leaders. On 21 October 2024, the Chairperson of the AU Commission issued a statement calling for calm and condemning the post-election violence in Mozambique and urging “all political actors to maintain a peaceful disposition as the country await[ed] the official declaration of the final results by the Constitutional Council”.
One of the key findings of the 2023 African Governance Report on Unconstitutional Changes of Government (UCGs) was that “instability may result if elections are not considered credible.” These findings are corroborated by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)’s 2023 Report on Soldiers and Citizens: Military Coups and the Need for Democratic Renewal in Africa, which identified governance deficits as one of “the factors that have contributed to the recent wave of coups across Africa.” Therefore, it is important that solutions are devised and implemented to improve the credibility of all elections in the SADC region.
Looking ahead to the 2025 elections in the Region and beyond, there are some key areas of improvements that SADC and its member states may take note of. Youth participation and ownership in the electoral processes in the Region needs to be considerably improved by, for example, enhancing the use and quality of technology in elections and providing young people with more opportunities in political leadership. Further, domestic Election Management Bodies (EMBs) and domestic election observers need to be adequately financed and capacitated to safeguard electoral processes in the Region and thereby enhance electoral integrity.
Nkanyiso Simelane is a Researcher at the African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD), focussing on issues of governance, democracy, elections and coalitions in Africa.
This article is a summary of some of the discussions from an ACCORD workshop titled “Reflections on the 2024 Elections in Southern Africa: Outcomes, Trends and Prospects for the Region” held on 11 and 12 December 2024, in Johannesburg, South Africa.
