The report of Working Group 1 of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released in August 2021 underlines the urgent need to expedite the transition to a lower carbon economy if catastrophic levels of global warming are to be avoided within as little as two decades. The same report indicates that, even if the political will to contain global warming to the 1.5°C target is mustered (a big IF), more extreme weather events, caused by the global warming already underway, are inevitable.
Ensuring that a transition to a lower carbon economy delivers an equitable share of the potential economic benefits to #Africa depends on the extent to which the continent is able to become a producer of lower-carbon-emitting technologies and products – Rob Davis @AfricanClimateF
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People in African countries have long been identified as among those most likely to be adversely affected by catastrophic climate change. Southern Africa, for example, is already experiencing a rise in average temperatures twice that of the global average, and most of the continent has already faced extreme weather emergencies either as drought or floods. African countries have thus consistently argued in support of “common but differentiated responsibilities” in undertaking necessary mitigation measures.
The more rapid transition to a lower carbon economy, called for by the United Nations, raises many questions for Africa. They include issues related to ensuring a “just transition” and managing “transition risks”. For South Africa alone, the cost of transitions allowing it to reach its Paris commitments have been estimated at around R 1.8 trillion in decommissioned assets, an amount equal to around 60% of its GDP.
Ensuring a “just transition” is therefore critical to the continent’s ability to contribute to a more ambitious shift towards a lower carbon economy. A central element of this shift is ensuring that the continent benefits from the introduction of cleaner technologies and industries through jobs, industrial development and higher incomes.
Without this insurance, the continent is set to become a net loser as its high carbon activities are shut down or frozen out, not just by its own commitments but also by the actions of its trading partners and export customers. It will be critical for Africa to ensure that it receives an equitable share of the potential developmental benefits arising from a transition to a lower carbon economy.
The inequities associated with the distribution of Covid-19 vaccines have also highlighted the importance of reducing dependence on imported strategic products by promoting a greater decentralization of production to a greater number of locations.
Ensuring that a transition to a lower carbon economy delivers an equitable share of the potential economic benefits to Africa will depend on the extent to which the continent is able to become a producer and not just a consumer of value-added lower-carbon-emitting technologies and products.
Africa thus needs to approach #COP26 insisting on its right to become a producer of green technologies and products and not continue to be relegated to the role of being a mere consumer of goods produced elsewhere – Rob Davis @AfricanClimateF @APRI_Africa #COP26
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The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) has been identified as a key enabling mechanism in unlocking a large regional market that could underpin the emergence of regional value chains supporting a broad-based move to higher value-added production across the continent. If this market was to materialize, it would see a range of higher value- added products being manufactured in and drawing components from plants located in several countries and being consumed across the continent and exported. The AfCFTA framework harbors immense potential for one or more regional value chains producing renewable energy or other green technology products.
This potential, however, will not be realized automatically or inevitably. It will depend on purposeful action at national, REC (Regional Economic Community) and continental level. The action will need to include deploying a range of industrial policy tools – including providing developmental finance and incentives, enforcing localization in public procurement and ensuring that the AfCFTA provides a real margin of preference for locally domiciled industries by rejecting calls for premature liberalization towards third parties.
At the same time, the inevitability of more extreme weather events outlined in the IPCC Working Group 1 report highlights the need for urgent and ambitious programs to build more resilient infrastructure, as well as make existing infrastructure sturdier. Acting proactively can also create jobs and incomes in the construction and maintenance of infrastructure and be part of programs to recover from the Covid Great Lockdown recession.
Africa thus needs to approach COP 26 insisting on its right to become a producer of green technologies and products and not continue to be relegated to the role of being a mere consumer of goods produced elsewhere. At the same time, it needs to highlight the importance of being supported in adapting both to a lower carbon future and to the probability of having to confront extreme weather emergencies. Indeed, Africa’s ability to contribute its “common but differentiated responsibilities” will depend on the extent to which it is able to benefit from the potential jobs and developmental benefits of a “just transition” to a lower carbon world. Locking into this benefit will require meaningful commitments on real resource transfers, not vague promises that profit-seeking financial institutions will engineer new financial products if provided with sufficient guarantees and subsidies to ensure they receive high rent returns.
Dr Rob Davies retired in 2019 after serving for a decade as South Africa’s Minister of Trade and Industry. The article was first published by the African Climate Foundation and the African Policy Research Institute and the original full length version is available here and here
