The pandemic has also increased gender inequality as it has worsened the situation for women and the vulnerable elderly and children. Limited fiscal space, particularly in countries dependent on tourism and commodities exports, has constrained the abilities of governments to fight the pandemic and prevent massive job and income losses. Member States are implementing large fiscal and monetary measures, averaging over 10 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), to fight the pandemic, sustain aggregate demand and prevent a deep recession. Further, the pandemic has impacted on debt levels through widening fiscal deficits as revenues shrink due to disruptions of economic activity as well as contraction of export receipts. Member States are grappling with increasing public debt which is likely to trend above the threshold of 60 percent of GDP in 2021 and 2022 for a majority of countries in the region.
In the #SADC Region, #COVID_19 has widened inequalities within, and between Member States.
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In view of these developments, it is forecast that the economy of the SADC region will contract by 4.8 percent in 2020. All Member States are projected to record contraction in real GDP growth in 2020 except for Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique and Tanzania which are expected to record minimal growth rates not exceeding 5.5 percent. Member States are projected to underperform in achieving the agreed macroeconomic convergence indicators in 2020 and 2021. Only one Member State (Tanzania) is projected to meet the set targets of the Primary Macroeconomic Indicators (Inflation, Fiscal Deficit and Public Debt) in 2020 and 2021 down from five Member States (DRC, Madagascar, Lesotho, Seychelles and Tanzania) which met the set targets of the Primary Macroeconomic Convergence indicators in 2019. Without continued Government support, bankruptcies and unemployment could rise faster than warranted, and may take a toll on people’s livelihoods for years to come. The recovery prospects of the regional economy hinges on limiting the health and socio-economic impact of COVID-19 through strict compliance with health protocols, and in the short term, access to and distribution of vaccines, and in the medium to long term the enhancement of national and regional capacities in research and manufacturing of vaccine, medicines/pharmaceuticals.
Stigma and Discrimination
The fast spread of the COVID-19 pandemic combined with the high morbidity and mortality rate observed in some countries has elicited serious distress in the general population which has been accompanied by stigma and discrimination. In some countries, certain groups, such as truck drivers, travellers and foreigners have been labelled as spreaders of the disease. At national level, the implementation of strict measures has led to violations against migrants and given rise to nationalist sentiment. In the workplace, workers who have either been infected directly or whose families were known to have been infected are discriminated against, and sometimes stigmatised, with co-workers avoiding interaction with them, and this has often led to frustration and stress on the part of the affected workers.
Lack of a cure and unbalanced distribution and access to vaccines, and limited information on available vaccines and their efficacy are likely to hinder not just the global health recovery, but also economic recovery. The virus would continue to spread and mutate. There is therefore a need for a global response that pays attention to all issues that are emerging.
State-citizen relations and areas of improvement
In such novel pandemic situations, much hinges on the relationship between the State and its citizens with respect to the response options, impact and recovery from the pandemic. In this regard, it is critical to note that State-citizen relations depend on measures put in place to buttress the region’s resilience to COVID-19, and future pandemics and emergencies.
As the pandemic spread into Africa, pundits predicted not only tens of thousands of deaths, but political turmoil and chaos. Such punditry was based on the premise that deprivation of livelihoods, access to critical health infrastructure, income and basic needs, individual liberties, and in the face of impending food shortages, the general population would conduct mass rebellion. Such dire predictions nonetheless, grossly underestimated the state institutions and community cohesion in the SADC region in particular, and in Africa in general. First, through regional consensus, measures were put in place to prevent disruptions to food supply chains across the region, and to facilitate movement of essential goods across the region. Second, individual liberties were curtailed (with built-in regular review mechanisms), based on sound scientific and consultative processes. Third, broader national electoral processes were not suspended to suit the whim of incumbency under the guise of public health emergencies. Member States with scheduled and fresh elections duly went ahead with these processes thus gaining the trust of the citizens. At a regional level, adherence to constitutionally mandated electoral processes was also supported by SADC through constant virtual engagement with electoral stakeholders, thus reinforcing the relevance of the SADC common developmental agenda. SADC continued to address the impacts of the pandemic, and remained politically stable and peaceful with no acts of civil disobedience.
Isolated cases of individual acts of civil disobedience were dealt with, as part of routine law enforcement. The few isolated acts of overzealousness on the part of security services in this regard were also addressed through administrative channels. The national and regional pandemic responses and impact did not negatively impact upon the relationship between the State, institutions and citizens.
While the level of trust between citizens and state institutions remains positive, there are areas for improvement, in particular, the widespread perceptions that emergency COVID-19 response procurement processes were influenced by corruption, or were opportunities for fraudulent enrichment of elites. Any gaps need to be filled, while enhancing transparency to build trust. Further national and regional capacities in managing pandemics and disasters, and in research and manufacturing vaccines and medicine need to be heightened.
Dr. Stergomena Tax serves as the incumbent Executive Secretary of the Southern African Development Community.
