There comes a time when a society and its people must decide whether it should seek to continue the status quo or challenge it and Africa’s history is proof. While democratic elections are possible drivers of change and purposed to be non-violent, African societies are riddled with certain complexities and impeding factors which tend to drive these societies towards violence. Africa’s most populous country, Nigeria, will be at such a point on 25 February 2023, when it holds its Presidential and National Assembly Elections; the 7th in the Fourth Republic (1999-2023).
The 2023 Presidential Election is very significant in so many ways, not only to Nigerians, but to Africa and the world at large, due to some indicators playing out
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Nigeria’s first attempt at challenging the status quo in its fourth republic was by successfully unseating the incumbent in the 2015 Presidential Election which was lauded by the international community when former President Goodluck Jonathan was defeated by the incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari. The 2023 Presidential Election is very significant in so many ways, not only to Nigerians, but to Africa and the world at large, due to some indicators playing out. Ranging from political, economic and security issues at the domestic level to Nigeria’s position/alignment on the global scene in the coming years, the election has regional (ECOWAS), continental and global significance, especially on the new direction of Nigeria’s foreign policy and stance on global political issues, for the next six to twelve months.
The lived reality in Nigeria is currently marked by unprecedented levels of poverty and unemployment, an exodus of the youth population, and a high debt profile. This also includes an inflation rate which rose to 21.82 in January 2023 from 21.34 the previous month. Additionally, the controversial and untimely new currency redesigning, which has led to the withdrawal of old naira notes to be replaced by new notes, which are not properly circulated, leading to a crisis as this piece is being written. The health and education sectors are begging for attention as Nigerians go to the polls. Amidst this, the “dark cloud” of terrorism and violent extremism still hover over some communities in northern Nigeria; although the Nigerian military has gained impressive grounds over the last year. In the same region (especially in the North-West), many communities suffered attacks within the last six years where hundreds of thousands were displaced or killed, through farmer-herder conflict, banditry and kidnapping.
This includes cross-border banditry, indicating the urgent need to enhance border security. For communities in the North-Central region, the most challenging security issue has been with (armed) herders whose cattle feed on their crops and many deaths were recorded in this context. To the South-East, secession agitation has increasingly become a source of unrest within the last decade which threatens the stability in the region. In the South-West (as well as other parts of the country), kidnapping has become rampant, as oil theft in the South-South geopolitical zone of Nigeria was under the spotlight in 2022. All these, among many other things, are drivers of humanitarian crises. All these issues are crucial to understanding how significant this election is for many Nigerians who consider any or all of these as the core issues that require redress. What to do and how to achieve it has therefore been the focus of candidates and their parties’ manifestoes, indicating an impressive attempt at responsiveness from those who intend to hold the highest office of the land.
There are 18 presidential candidates in an election where more than 70 political parties are participating in the 25 February election. However, for the first time in Nigeria’s fourth republic, the three major candidates representing the major political parties, (Atiku Abubakar-PDP, Bola Ahmed Tinubu-APC and Peter Obi-Labour) that have dominated all previous pre-election polls, represent the three major ethnic communities, regions and religions. Also, for the first time in its history, a candidate from the Southeast geopolitical zone has within a very short period of time (less than six months) enjoyed organic nationwide support at a magnitude that was unpredictable. This coincides with a period when Nigeria’s youth population have taken particular interest in elections as a defining moment, stirring and driving an unprecedented campaign for voter registration and collection of Permanent Voter’s Cards.
However, the total number of registered voters in 2019 (84,004,084), for example, exceeded the total number of votes cast (28,614,190) implying that the 35.66% voter turnout was a drop from 43.66% in 2015; the youth drive is predicted to upset the regular voting pattern with positive prospects of overcoming the huge voter apathy. Thus, considering the recent massive exodus of Nigerian youth, with more in-waiting, a high-voter turnout from a greater fraction of Nigeria’s demography who are known for voter apathy in the past may be the defining constituent for Nigeria’s next President.
This context is testament to a degree of inclusion and active participation that is unexpected given the various challenges that rather provoked escapist behavioural patterns and a lack of interest in the past. It has become evident to those who pay attention that, regardless of the challenges, the prospects to consolidate democracy in Nigeria are positive and three major encouraging factors buttress this; Nigeria’s incumbent President’s spoken and unspoken commitment to a free and fair election, the passing of Nigeria’s new Electoral Act which was passed in 2022 and leveraging modern technology through the BVAS system which is believed to help enhance the integrity and transparency of election results could be a defining moment in this election. Many people have argued that these new developments may enhance and ensure Nigeria’s democratic process and consolidation.
Nigeria’s youth population have taken particular interest in elections as a defining moment, stirring and driving an unprecedented campaign for voter registration and collection of Permanent Voter’s Cards
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Amidst the enthusiasm, however, there are certain pressure points that have developed within the last four months which has led to protests in some states. The ruling party, under which Bola Ahmed Tinubu is contesting, appears to have an internal crisis. The campaign has seen key actors accusing the Executive of initiating policies that are aimed at sabotaging the election or the selection of Tinubu as Nigeria’s next President. How this may result in violence is unclear, but it is a pressure point to watch as clashes between some party supporters behind Tinubu and security agencies is a possibility. The policy that stoked this accusation include the redesigning of the naira which has led to scarcity of naira. Protests in this regard have led to several deaths. This period also coincides with a nationwide fuel scarcity and increase in pump prices which is also purported to be deliberate. Another pressure point to look out for include threats and voter intimidation which some voters are likely to encounter in some parts of the country.
Constitutionally, section 126(2) of the 1999 constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, as amended states that:
A candidate for an election to the office of President shall be deemed to have been duly elected where, there being more than 2 candidates for election –
(a) he has the highest number of votes cast at the election; and
(b) he has not less than one- quarter of the votes cast at the election in each of at least two- thirds of all the States in the Federation.
This means that, in the forthcoming election, if any of the candidates are not able to fulfil the two aforementioned provisions, especially (b) above, no one will be declared the winner and by implication there may be a run-off election as provided for in section 126(3) of the constitution. The emergence of the Group of 5 (G.5) Governors (Abia, Benue, Enugu, Oyo and Rivers States), the ongoing currency swap/redesigning and fuel scarcity crises could also influence the outcome of the Presidential election.
Finally, the judicial system has increasingly become a prominent actor in Nigeria’s electoral process in recent years. This includes post-election petition processes (which has a potential to upset the public) and responding to perpetrators of electoral violence. The threat the various armed groups pose is also a major concern as they may obstruct elections or take advantage of vulnerabilities during the election period. Therefore as Nigerians go to the polls to decide the direction of the country and who will drive it, the Nigerian state must demonstrate political and security preparedness to handle whatever hurdles surface.
Joshua Olusegun Bolarinwa, PhD is the Head of the Security and Strategic Studies Division, Research and Studies Department at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA) Lagos, Nigeria.
