Transition, in the context of politics, is defined as the end, extension or transfer of power from one leader to another. History shows that political transitions can either accelerate or reverse development outcomes, depending on how they are managed. Africa is experiencing ongoing political transition: whether demanded by citizens; or manifested through the actions of political elites effecting change. Transition could occur in non-conflict, conflict, and post-conflict settings.[1] But what is the quality of Africa’s transitions, and how best can they be supported to enable positive long-term outcomes?
Africa’s experience has shown that the timing and management of elections could pose inherent risks on stability especially in post-conflict settings @jmartyns @DrRoselynAkombe
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In the last six decades, Africa has made significant progress towards embracing the constitutional form of transition primarily through elections. According to the Brookings Africa leadership tracker, since 1960, multi-party elections and single-party elections have constituted 32% and 12% respectively of transitions in Africa. During the same period, 20% of transitions have been through coup d’états; and 26% are linked to the establishment of provisional/interim governments. It is worth noting that death while in office, resignation, or retirement constitute 10% of the transitions on the continent.
Transitions through constitutional means reflect the traditional liberal peace approach to governance, whereby elections are a democratic milestone and a necessary step towards an effective transition. Yet Africa’s experience has shown that the timing and management of elections could possibly pose inherent risks to stability especially in post-conflict settings, and that ‘liberal peace’ may not always, in fact, be peaceful.
In recent times, no region in Africa has been spared crisis or the threat of crisis as a result of either constitutional, unconstitutional, or extra-constitutional transfer of power. From the Horn of Africa, to the Sahel to Southern Africa, military coups, challenges to long-standing monarchies, mass uprisings, sudden deaths of presidents, or the emergence of a new generation of leaders are defining the context of contemporary transitions in Africa. The management of these varying forms of transitions have a significant impact on peace, security, and development on the continent.
Africa’s peace and development landscape requires all actors to work together to ensure inclusive political transitions in all its country settings as part of the continent’s progress in democratic governance @jmartyns @DrRoselynAkombe
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Understanding when and why political transition can correlate with crisis is not straightforward. Indicators such as GDP growth, population size, or size of cabinet, corruption, accountability, and rule of law may be contributing factors to shaping the quality and impact of political transition, but in studies by the African Cabinet and Political Elite Data (ACPED) Project, there was little effect shown of such variables predicting outbreak of crisis.
What is almost certain however is that investment in building effective, inclusive, accountable, and just institutions at all levels prior to transitions, could foster post-transition stability. In a new research emerging from United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the level and quality of the participation of citizens, especially women and youth in the transition process throughout the unfolding of the process itself – whatever its impetus and whichever type of development setting in which it occurs – looks likely to be a critical and an overlooked variable.
Cognisant of the central challenge of transition witnessed on the continent, the African Union (AU) and its Regional Economic Communities/Regional Mechanisms (RECs/RMs) are seeking ways to manage these delicate transitions within its member states. A recent virtual meeting of the Peace and Security Council (PSC) of the AU on support to member states in political transitions and post-conflict situations provided a platform for the sharing of country level experiences among member states. The AU Commission renewed its commitment to partnering with international partners, including UNDP, to support countries to effectively manage transitions.
The 2006 AU Policy on Post-Conflict Reconstruction and Development (PCRD) offers a pathway to support countries and regional organisations in anticipating the risks of, and effectively responding to instability related to transitional moments. The policy is predicated on six indicators to post-conflict transitions namely: security, humanitarian/emergency assistance, political governance and transitions, socio-economic reconstruction and development, human rights, justice and reconciliation and women and gender empowerment. In addition, the AU Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance, provides a detailed framework through which AU member states can be supported to prevent, and effectively respond to transitions.
According to the AU PSC, some results are emerging from these efforts. In the Gambia, the deployment of an AU technical team has facilitated an ongoing whole-of-government reform process, across public institutions. Assessments and support to peace processes between armed groups in the Central African Republic helped broker a peace accord, which is currently being implemented. Other countries such as Lesotho and Libya are also beneficiaries of AU’s support to transitions.
Transitions could accelerate or reverse development in Africa, depending on how it is managed @jmartyns @DrRoselynAkombe
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Continued engagement is needed. Africa’s peace and development landscape requires all actors to work together to ensure inclusive political transitions in all its country settings as part of the continent’s progress in democratic governance. In addition to continuing with the implementation of the PCRD, the AU and its partners should consider three urgent measures to ensure effective management of inclusive transitions.
First, better understanding and evidence on the conditions that may make crisis likely during or after transitions is urgently needed. In particular, channels for ensuring inclusiveness and shifting the discourse on political transition to take into account the vertical and horizontal aspects of social cohesion that can be generated through transition processes could fill existing knowledge gaps. Such evidence could translate into a continental index on countries with the risks of a transition crisis based on a set of governance system indicators that could assess the resilience of key institutions, leaders, and citizens. Such a dataset would ensure that the AU’s tools are deployed early, to avoid the human and economic costs of ineffectively managed transitions.
Second, regional mechanisms for intra-Africa support to transitions also need to be revitalised. In this regard, the African Solidarity Initiative (ASI), which is a financial instrument established by AU member states, requires additional resources to ensure timely, and effective support to countries before and during transitions. The investment of AU member states in the ASI demonstrates in concrete ways how Africa could contribute to financing its own development.
Third, deliberate efforts must be made to ensure full citizen engagement in the transition process to promote people-centred approaches to governance. This is especially crucial given that youth under the age of 24 account for 60% of Africa’s population and women constitute only 24% of parliamentarians in Africa. Engaging with civil society organisations, women and youth groups, the media, religious and traditional leaders as well as the private sector would be crucial in managing inclusive and peaceful transitions.
Strategic partnerships with African institutions and other bilateral partners could be instrumental in ensuring coherence, coordination, and cooperation in support of countries in transitions. Strengthening the AU’s leadership in facilitating these partnerships with RECs/RMs including AU policy organs (such as APRM, AUDA-NEPAD) as well as development and international partners will be essential in safeguarding inclusive and successful transitions, functioning systems, and accountability. In June 2021, UNDP launched a new project initiative to support inclusive transitions in Africa, which provides a package of regional support, as required, to help countries effectively manage transitions.
Transition is a prominent feature of Africa’s developmental journey. Anticipating risks and effectively managing transitions will remain a preoccupation for the continent.
Dr. Jide Okeke is the Coordinator of the UNDP Regional Programme for Africa, and Dr. Roselyn Akombe is the Coordinator of UNDP Governance team. They are both based at the UNDP Regional Service Centre in Addis Ababa.
[1] Recognising the broad scope of transition, for the purpose of this article, the definition of transitions is primarily focused on constitutional and non-constitutional rule.
