The Horn of Africa is a region marked by a complex tapestry of challenges, where political instability, economic underdevelopment, and social fragmentation intersect. In recent years, the impacts of climate change have emerged as a significant factor exacerbating existing vulnerabilities and fuelling conflict. This fragile region, encompassing countries such as Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia and Somalia, has become a focal point for understanding how environmental stressors can reshape security landscapes. As climate-induced phenomena like droughts, erratic rainfall and desertification intensify, the competition for limited resources, including water and arable land, has deepened tensions among communities and across borders.
Resource scarcity in the Horn of Africa is not merely a by-product of environmental change but is deeply intertwined with socio-economic inequities, governance failures, and historical grievances. Communities dependent on pastoralism and agriculture, which are highly vulnerable to climatic fluctuations, often find themselves at the centre of disputes over dwindling resources. These local conflicts, if unresolved, can escalate into broader regional instability, undermining peace and development efforts. The interplay between resource scarcity and conflict highlights the urgent need for integrated approaches to address the root causes of insecurity in the region. Efforts to mitigate these challenges have been led by a variety of actors, including national governments, regional organisations such as the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), and international institutions like the African Union and the United Nations. However, the effectiveness of these initiatives remains inconsistent, hampered by fragmented responses, limited resources, and competing political interests. While some progress has been made in fostering regional cooperation, persistent insecurity and climate vulnerability underscore the need for more cohesive strategies.
Impact of Climate Change on Resource Scarcity and Conflict Dynamics
The Horn of Africa exemplifies the profound impact of climate change on resource scarcity and conflict dynamics, a relationship that continues to undermine regional stability. Climate change in this arid and semi-arid region has led to more frequent and severe droughts, erratic rainfall patterns, and rising temperatures, all of which contribute to the degradation of natural resources. For instance, Somalia has experienced a series of devastating droughts, including the prolonged 2011 famine that claimed hundreds of thousands of lives. These environmental changes have intensified competition for scarce resources such as water and pastureland, exacerbating tensions among pastoralist and agricultural communities.
A critical example of this dynamic is the recurring conflict between Somali herders and Ethiopian farmers in the Ogaden region. Here, disputes over access to water sources and grazing areas have frequently escalated into violent confrontations, fuelled by the growing scarcity of these resources. The situation is further complicated by the intersection of ethnic and political grievances, where resource competition becomes a flashpoint for broader historical tensions. Climate change has thus not only heightened existing disputes but also created new avenues for conflict by increasing the stakes of survival in resource-dependent economies.
The Nile River basin provides another striking illustration of the climate-security nexus. Ethiopia’s construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has sparked diplomatic tensions with downstream nations such as Sudan and Egypt, which depend heavily on the Nile for water and agriculture. While the GERD is framed as a vital development project for Ethiopia, its implications for water availability downstream are a source of anxiety, especially in the face of declining rainfall patterns linked to climate change. This situation underscores how resource scarcity driven by environmental changes can escalate into geopolitical disputes, with potential ramifications for regional peace.
While climate change is not the sole driver of conflict in the Horn of Africa, it acts as a multiplier, intensifying existing vulnerabilities and disputes. The interplay between environmental stress, weak governance, and socio-economic marginalisation demands integrated solutions that address not only the immediate needs of affected communities but also the systemic drivers of resource scarcity and conflict. Examples from Somalia and the Nile Basin highlight the urgent need to adopt cross-border cooperation, equitable resource-sharing agreements, and investments in climate resilience to break the cycle of scarcity and violence.
Regional and national responses to climate-security risks
Responses to climate security risks in the Horn of Africa have varied significantly across national and regional levels, reflecting differing capacities and priorities among the states and institutions involved. At the regional level, IGAD has taken a leading role in addressing the climate-security nexus, by establishing mechanisms like the Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), which provides climate data and early warning systems to help member states anticipate and mitigate climate-related risks. While this represents a commendable step towards regional cooperation, the effectiveness of these initiatives is often undermined by uneven implementation at the national level, weak institutional capacity, and limited funding.
Ethiopia has emerged as a notable example of a country attempting to integrate climate adaptation into its national development strategy. Through its Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) initiative, Ethiopia has prioritised reforestation, renewable energy, and sustainable agriculture to address both environmental degradation and economic vulnerabilities. The Ethiopian government’s efforts to rehabilitate degraded lands and expand renewable energy projects, such as the GERD, demonstrate a commitment to long-term resilience. However, the GERD itself has sparked tensions with downstream neighbours, Sudan and Egypt, highlighting the challenge of balancing national development goals with regional cooperation on shared resources.
Regional cooperation has shown promise but remains inconsistent. For example, the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), involving countries that share the Nile River, aims to promote equitable use and joint management of water resources. However, disagreements over the GERD and other projects have exposed the limits of consensus-building in the region. Similar challenges affect IGAD’s ability to mediate resource conflicts, as member states often prioritise national interests over regional solidarity. This tension is particularly evident in border areas, where competition for resources like water and grazing land often spills over into violence, undermining collective efforts to promote stability.
Critically analysing these examples reveals that while some national and regional responses to climate-security risks in the Horn of Africa are innovative, they are often constrained by structural limitations. A lack of coordination between national governments and regional bodies, combined with insufficient investment in sustainable solutions, hampers progress. Furthermore, addressing these challenges requires not only technical solutions but also the political will to prioritise equitable resource management and climate adaptation as central components of peacebuilding. Without such an integrated approach, the region will continue to grapple with the compounding effects of climate change, resource scarcity, and conflict.
Abraham Ename Minko is a senior researcher and policy analyst in peace, security, and conflict resolution.
